[Key words] expansion tide, overcapacity, integrated layout, industry concentration
[introduction] in recent years, the global production capacity growth of organosilicon monomer mainly comes from China. According to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, there are 5.22 million tons / year new plans in China, and the production capacity will be doubled after the implementation. It can be predicted that in the future, the pressure of monomer overcapacity will be large, leading enterprises in the industry will enhance the market competitiveness in the future through integrated layout, and the upstream and downstream concentration of the silicone industry chain may be rapidly increased. The production capacity of China's organosilicon monomer is the largest in the world. In the past five years, due to factors such as raw materials, cost and market, overseas production capacity growth has been slow. In addition to Xinyue's monomer capacity expansion in Thailand and Japan, the global production capacity growth of silicone monomer mainly comes from China. The technical barriers of organosilicon monomers are relatively high. The world's major producers are Dow, Wacker, China Bluestar Group, metu, Japan shinyue, etc. the market share of the five leading enterprises in monomer Market in 2019 is as high as 53.75%. The world's silicone monomer production units are mainly concentrated in China, the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Thailand and other developed countries and regions, with a high concentration of production capacity. In 2019, the total capacity of China's organosilicon monomer is 3.28 million tons (including the capacity of foreign-funded enterprises in China), up 6.49% year-on-year, accounting for 58.57% of the global total capacity.
Figure 1
China ushers in the tide of monomer production expansion, and the pressure of supply and demand imbalance is large in the future
Figure 2
Since the second half of 2016, in the context of the optimization of the supply and demand pattern, silicone has entered a new boom cycle, with the profits of monomer manufacturers climbing, and silicone ushered in an investment boom. Because the monomer construction cycle is in 2-3 years, and the production of new devices is concentrated in 2019-2022. According to the expansion plan disclosed by the existing enterprises, Zhuo Chuang information has 5.22 million tons of new capacity in China, double the current domestic capacity. Due to high technical barriers and high investment costs, 60% of the new construction in the market comes from the expansion of the existing single plant. According to the current new capacity schedule, expected production time and construction cycle, the annual compound growth rate of single capacity in the next five years is between 15% - 18%. In terms of demand, based on the spread of global public health events, the development of global economy and most industries will be hindered, and the demand of traditional application fields of silicone will be suppressed. However, with the rapid development of new energy, new infrastructure and other emerging industries, the demand growth of silicone for new energy, medical, electronics, beauty, health care and other emerging fields will increase. In the next five years, the growth rate of demand for organosilicon monomer in China is expected to be between 5% and 7%. Overall, in the next five years, the growth rate of single capacity is far higher than the growth rate of demand, and the pressure of excess supply is greater. Under the background of increasing pressure of supply and demand imbalance, the competition among monomer enterprises is inevitable, and the integration of silicone industry is inevitable. In order to improve the market competitiveness in the future, domestic advantageous monomer enterprises grasp the opportunity in advance in the fierce market competition, accelerate the extension of the upstream and downstream layout of the industrial chain, and improve the level of vertical integration, mainly from the following four aspects: 1. Expand the production capacity of organosilicon monomer, and further improve the market share. Among the 12 newly planned monomer plants in China, the existing monomer plants expand the capacity Seven. Monomer is a typical capital intensive and technology intensive industry. Downstream terminal manufacturers are small in scale, weak in capital strength, and most of them do not have specific conditions to expand upstream. However, new enterprises have a long way to go to catch up with existing enterprises in monomer production technology, and it is difficult to form competitiveness in a short time. Therefore, the existing monomer plants continue to expand monomer production capacity, on the one hand, increase the supply of core raw materials and intermediates, and improve the cost advantage. On the other hand, further consolidate and enhance the market share and industry position of the company's single entity. 2. Layout downstream product deep processing projects, and improve the growth space of high value-added products.
Figure 3
At present, China's silicone industry is highly market-oriented, and the main competitors include state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises. From the perspective of domestic market share, although local enterprises have made great progress in monomer production, most of the downstream products of the industrial chain are primary and deep-processing products, while the high-end downstream products still have problems of low specification and low grade. Foreign brands have obvious advantages in the downstream high-end market field, and it is difficult for the single enterprise to continue to rely on the scale driven development mode. In recent years, we have followed the example of foreign leading enterprises in extending the industrial chain to the downstream, opening up the growth space of high value-added products, and improving the level of individual self use. It is understood that most of the domestic monomer new construction projects are equipped with downstream deep processing devices. According to statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, raw rubber, 107 rubber and silicone oil are the main new items in the downstream of the domestic monomer new construction, while the proportion of newly added silicone resin and liquid rubber with higher added value increases. With the continuous expansion of the application field of silicone oil, in addition to the traditional dimethylsilicone oil, the new proportion of hydrogen containing silicone oil, vinyl silicone oil and special silicone oil has increased. 3. Resource advantage enterprises continue to expand upstream, and improve the cost advantage of raw materials. The direct upstream of organosilicon monomer is chloroform and silicon metal 421, among which the chloroform production process is divided into synthesis and by-product. The cost of glyphosate by-product chloromethane is lower than synthesis process. At present, among the 11 domestic monomer enterprises, only Hubei Xingfa and Zhejiang Xin'an have supporting glyphosate production facilities, accounting for 18%. Zhejiang Xin'an, Aiken spark and Hesheng silicon industries have metal silicon devices, accounting for 27%. The raw material cost advantage of four monomer enterprises is obvious. Recently, organosilicon enterprises with resource advantages tend to expand to the upstream more and more obviously. Through controlling the upstream metal silicon resources and supporting glyphosate production capacity, the monomer enterprises that obtain low-cost raw material methyl chloride will further improve the supporting advantages of the raw material end. In 2018, Xingfa Group acquired 100% equity of Inner Mongolia Tenglong, a glyphosate manufacturer, and further improved glyphosate production capacity through its own technological transformation; in 2018, Zhejiang Hesheng released 400000 tons of industrial silicon production capacity in Shanshan; in 2020, Wacker chemical Norway's new metal silicon production capacity was put into operation; in 2020, Zhejiang Xin'an company and Yanjin Xinghui Mining Co., Ltd. jointly funded the establishment of Yanjin Xinxin An Mining Co., Ltd. has obtained the mining right of more than 20 million tons of reserves in the first mining site. 4. The trend of foreign-funded enterprises merging with downstream terminal enterprises is obvious. The downstream terminal enterprises (high temperature glue, room temperature glue, etc.) of the organic silicon industrial chain are small and disorderly. Foreign enterprises have obvious trend of building famous brands by merging with downstream advantageous enterprises. For example, Elkem company plans to acquire the polymer shares of China's leading organic silicon elastomer and silicone material manufacturers to consolidate The position of silicone market segments; the Basel chemical of the company's acquisition of special silicone gel to strengthen its downstream technological strength is a way for domestic single companies to follow. In conclusion, with the gradual release of new capacity of silicone monomer in the future, the competition in monomer field is fierce, and the profitability of monomer and intermediate products will decline. Most of the domestic and foreign advantageous enterprises hedge the future risks by integrating the layout and taking into account the market share. In the future, the organic silicon monomer manufacturers with single upstream products and the downstream small and medium-sized enterprises will be merged and reorganized frequently, and the industry concentration is expected to increase rapidly. At the same time, improving the comprehensive utilization of by-products will also become the focus of the future development of monomer enterprises. Zhuo Chuang information official account media cooperation
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