On April 6, the U.S. will officially launch the international repo mechanism of U.S. Treasury bonds. Central banks of China and other countries can obtain dollar loans from the Federal Reserve through mortgage of U.S. Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve claims that the purpose of this move is "to help countries alleviate the dollar shortage".
The fundamental purpose is to lock in China's U.S. debt from circulation, that is to say, we can't exchange U.S. debt for oil, minerals and other resources. We can only bind with U.S. dollars. Then we can pass the Customs together. If I collapse, your money will be lost. If I don't collapse, but if you have more money, your total debt will depreciate. ZTM is a red fruit snatch!
The global spread of the new coronavirus, the strong peripheral negative, some monomer enterprises stop production and risk aversion, silicone raw materials hit the bottom strongly rebounded, but the terminal consumption is too weak, which may reach the bottom 13000-13500 position twice,
Since the continuous decline of raw material prices in the first two weeks has triggered a wave of hoarding in the downstream, the stock pressure of monomer manufacturers has been greatly reduced. However, the new crown virus is still spreading in the world, with strong peripheral negative air, weak consumption capacity of organosilicon terminals, lack of sustainability in the market's bottom tracking, and short-term price rebound is only a recovery of oversold. Therefore, most insiders believe that whether April can stop the decline is still full of variables 。
The RMB keeps appreciating.
Morgan Stanley: cut the GDP growth expectation of the first quarter of the United States from - 2.4% to - 3.4%, and the GDP growth expectation of the second quarter from - 30% to a record - 38%. The adjusted forecast means that the annual real GDP rate of the United States will shrink by 5.5% in 2020, the biggest decline since 1946.
The Chinese government will continue to release water to stimulate the economy
The people's Bank of China decided to reduce the standard of small and medium-sized banks in April 2020, and cut the interest rate of excess deposit reserve of financial institutions in the central bank
In order to support the development of the real economy, promote greater support for small and medium-sized enterprises, and reduce the actual cost of social financing, the people's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point for rural credit cooperatives, rural commercial banks, rural cooperative banks, rural banks and urban commercial banks operating only in provincial administrative areas, which was implemented twice on April 15 and May 15 With the implementation in place, each time it was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, a total of 400 billion yuan of long-term funds were released. The people's Bank of China decided to cut the interest rate of excess deposit reserve of financial institutions in the central bank from 0.72% to 0.35% from April 7.
The people's Bank of China is more flexible in implementing a sound monetary policy, placing support for the recovery and development of the real economy in a more prominent position, focusing on targeted regulation, taking into account internal and external balance, maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, matching the growth of monetary credit and social financing scale with economic development, and creating a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply side structural reform.
Notice from Chinese Embassy in the United States:
Young Chinese students who are willing to charter a flight home
Register as soon as possible
Prepare for charter flight home
Special line for embassy in the United States:
+ 1-202-495-2216 (consular protection and assistance)
+ 1-202-830-9551 (epidemic related assistance hotline)
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There are only two ways for the United States to survive the crisis:
1. By launching financial attacks on other countries and detonating the economic crisis of their opponents, debt reduction can be realized;
2. Through the cooperation of military war and economic war, and through more severe financial agreements and the initiation of economic crisis in the defeat of opponents, the total elimination of US dollar debt was promoted.
The main target and opponent of the United States is China.
This paper is the inevitability of the current US strategic choice to China, namely:
1. If the U.S. cannot respond to the current economic trap, it will soon lose its dependence on the U.S. dollar hegemony.
2. In essence, the epidemic has led to the fact that the United States can only choose to resolve internal conflicts through finance or war.
3. Whether it is a financial war against China or a direct war against China, it is in the interests of the United States in this situation, because the consequences of not doing so will be more serious.
This will be the biggest change our country has faced in the past 40 years.
Warm tip: affected by the international financial crisis and the new crown epidemic situation, the upstream organic silicon monomer plant stopped production in April to avoid risks and life, and the cancellation or postponement of foreign trade orders caused the weakness of downstream orders. Upstream enterprises contact with production for three months, and the warehouse will burst to be digested by downstream enterprises at least in mid May. The price of organosilicon materials will reach a bottom of 13000-13500 yuan / ton after a slight rebound in recent years until the spring of 2022. The historical tragedy repeats, the disaster of the single plant comes, especially the listed companies with margin trading.
This week, the overall price of silicone at the bottom of the shock finishing. The price of DMC began to rebound after the bottom reading and warehouse building in the downstream. On Wednesday, the price of Luxi Chemical Industry was adjusted to 14600 yuan / ton and Xinan Chemical Industry to 15500 yuan / ton. The main negotiation range of the market is 15000-15500 yuan / ton. The downstream 107 rubber and raw rubber quotation also rebounded to some extent. The 107 rubber market quotation went down to 16200-17000 yuan / ton, and the raw rubber market quotation was 16800-17500 yuan / ton. As of Thursday, the price of domestic methyl silicone oil manufacturers is 18000-20500 yuan / ton, and the price of imported silicone oil is 19000-20500 yuan / ton. Collect and quote the price of the conventional hardness mixer, and the price of the manufacturer is 15500-16000 yuan / ton.
Recently, the overall price of silicone market was in low shock, and this Wednesday's rally stopped the rise and fall. The main reasons are as follows: 1. Many enterprises have increased their production load this week, the market supply is high, and the enterprises have strong willingness to ship. 2. Although with the resumption of the real estate market and the promotion of new infrastructure construction, the demand for silicone sealant and 107 rubber has picked up, but the silicone rubber products and high-temperature rubber products are not delivered well due to the limited export. The overall demand for organosilicon is difficult to recover. 3. The downward price of raw materials has reduced the overall price support of organosilicon, and the prices of methanol and industrial silicon have also been reduced under the pressure of the economic environment. At present, the trend of domestic market mainly depends on the recovery of domestic terminal demand and the recovery of international market. In the case of domestic downstream stock up and warehouse building, this part of inventory will aggravate the upstream and downstream game psychology and cause subsequent price shocks.
In terms of raw materials, the downstream of methanol market is mainly rigid demand procurement, and the market price has been reduced to a certain extent. The methanol price in the central and northern part of Shandong Province is about 1660-1730 yuan / ton. Recently, with the decline of economic situation and silicone market, industrial silicon has also been greatly reduced. The quotation of industrial silicon 421 in Tianjin port is 12200-12500 yuan / ton.
This week, the start-up of individual enterprises has increased. Jiangxi Xinghuo has opened two sets, with an average of 80%; Shandong Dongyue has started two sets, with an average of 70%; Hubei Xingfa has resumed construction one after another, with two sets opened this week; Tangshan Sanyou has opened two sets this week; Inner Mongolia Hengye has started 60%; Zhejiang Zhongtian overhaul is planned to restart next week; Zhejiang Xin'an, Luxi Chemical, Zhejiang Hesheng and Shandong Jinling have started normal construction.
The current epidemic is equivalent to a family suddenly suffering from a serious illness, and your money is outside. In order to cure the disease (supplement the deposit), you have to sell any assets at a low price. The support of DMC price 14000 is particularly strong, I think the short-term 13000-14000 will fluctuate for at least two years.
The epidemic prevention and control has been upgraded, and the return to work of small and medium-sized enterprises is affected by the shrinking of logistics and orders! The silicone market is surging, and the long empty game is open. Monomer factory because of warehouse capacity explosion and capital chain flow influence and compete to reduce price dumping In the short term, the rising probability of organosilicon price is zero.
Most of the upstream single enterprises will shut down production for maintenance in April and reduce production capacity to avoid risks and ensure life, and it is the king to survive.
In the short term, after this round of decline, there are just need to prepare goods, speculative bottoming, and raw rubber shipments do rise. However, due to the sharp decrease of export orders of silica gel products, the stock consumption of rubber compounds is slow. Although some silica products factories are facing the domestic market, they see a considerable profit margin in production and have a positive stock. However, in the market of more monks than less, the price of rubber mixture is also very fierce. It is expected that the international market will still be severe in the next three months, and the downstream terminal exports will be blocked. In this relatively extreme market, whether the price is in the end or not, not only from the cost point of view, but also from the demand side of the terminal. Therefore, it is recommended that the operator copy the bottom of the capital chain according to their own orders.
At present, ordinary raw rubber: the quotation of mainstream manufacturers is 16500-16000 yuan / ton; the transaction price is 15000-16000 yuan / ton;
At present, high molecular weight raw rubber (800000-900000 molecular weight): the main quotation is 18000-19000 yuan / ton;
Conventional hardness compound: the mainstream quotation is 15300-15500 yuan / ton; the transaction price is 15000-15500 yuan / ton; (all including tax price)
The latest quotation of DMC is for reference only: (the actual yield price is for sale, the special advantages of preparing cash to smash the single negotiation price, do not mention the unreliable inquiry such as bank acceptance and monthly settlement) the actual yield is at least 800 yuan / ton.
The annual production capacity of Eiken organic silicon (Jiangxi base) monomer is 400000 tons, the unit load is about 60%, there are many self-use, DMC is not reported temporarily.
The annual capacity of organosilicon monomer of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 80000 tons, and the operation of the unit is stable. Today, DMC offers 14700 yuan / ton (current exchange rate of purified water).
Zhejiang Xin'an has a total production capacity of 340000 tons, and the operation of the plant is stable. DMC offers 15500 yuan / ton (including tax for purified water), the shipment is smooth, and the firm offer is negotiated.
The capacity of silicone monomer of Shandong Jinling Chemical Co., Ltd. is 150000 tons, and the unit is in normal operation. DMC offers 15500 yuan / ton (including tax for purified water), and the firm offer is discussed.
The annual production capacity of organic silicon monomer of Hubei Xingfa is 180000 tons, and the DMC is not reported temporarily when the unit is opened, closed or shut down.
Inner Mongolia Hengye has an annual production capacity of 240000 tons of organic silicon monomer, and about 60% of the unit is under construction. DMC offers 16000 yuan / ton (including tax for purified water) for real negotiation.
The annual capacity of organic silicon monomer in Dongyue, Shandong Province is 250000 tons, and the unit load is about 70%. DMC does not offer any price for external use, but mainly for its own use.
Zhejiang Zhongtian organic silicon monomer has an annual production capacity of 120000 tons, and the unit is in normal operation. DMC will not offer a single price temporarily.
D4 latest offer has no advantage:
The annual production capacity of Ekin organic silicon (Jiangxi base) monomer is 400000 tons, the unit load is about 60%, the D4 row order is compact, no quotation is offered temporarily, and the actual order is negotiated.
Inner Mongolia Hengye has an annual production capacity of 240000 tons of organic silicon monomer, and about 60% of the unit is under construction. D4 offers 17500 yuan / ton (including tax for purified water), and the firm offer is discussed.
The annual capacity of organic silicon monomer of Xin'an chemical industry is 350000 tons, and the unit is in normal operation. D4 offers 18000 yuan / ton (the purified water is delivered with tax included), and the firm offer is negotiated.
Fumed silica has fallen to the lowest level in history and can be sold at the bottom.
The annual production capacity of gas phase silica in Dongyue, Shandong Province is 6000 tons, and the unit is in normal operation. The price of 150 ratio and 200 ratio gas phase silica is 19000-20500 yuan / ton, and the firm offer is discussed.
Zhejiang Xin'an gas phase white carbon black plant is in normal operation, with an external quotation of 23500 yuan / ton and a single negotiation
Jiangxi Hongbai new material gas phase white carbon black hp-150 offers 20500 yuan / ton; hp-200 offers 20500 yuan / ton, the actual single negotiation.
In Jiangsu Province, the ex factory quotation of gas phase white carbon black is 18000 yuan / ton for 150 comparison tables and 19000 yuan / ton for 200 comparison tables.
Yichang HuiFu gas phase white carbon black has an annual capacity of 8000 tons, and the unit is restored to production. There is no quotation for the time being, and the firm offer is discussed.
The annual production capacity of Jiangxi black cat gas phase white carbon black is 2000 tons, the unit is in normal production, the external quotation is 24000 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation.
Zhejiang medium weather phase white carbon black plant is in normal operation, and the price of gas phase white carbon black with a specific surface area of 200 is 19000 yuan / ton.
Normal operation of Changqing gas phase silica plant in Emeishan, Sichuan