After about three and a half years of downward adjustment, the development expectation of China's chemical industry has reversed in 2026, standing at a key inflection point from scale-and-speed-driven growth to quality-and-efficiency-oriented growth. This transformation is not accidental but an inevitable result of the synergistic drive of multiple forces including policies, market and technology. The industry's growth logic has shifted to a new stage of high-quality development led by "high-end supply, structural optimization and emerging demand".
    At the policy level, the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025-2026)" jointly issued by seven ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in September 2025 has drawn a clear roadmap for the industry, setting a target of "an average annual growth of more than 5% in industrial added value". Through precise regulation of "supporting quality development while curbing blind expansion", the policy strictly controls the disorderly expansion of traditional bulk products, and encourages the research of key materials such as electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins, as well as the digital and green transformation of the industry, guiding the industry towards high-value-added tracks.
    Positive changes have emerged on the supply side. Since the second half of 2025, the growth rate of capital expenditure in the chemical raw materials and products industry has reached an inflection point, marking the end of the phase of rapid capacity expansion. The "anti-involution" actions in segments such as PTA and silicone have optimized the supply structure. Coupled with the withdrawal of some high-cost overseas capacity, it has laid the foundation for the recovery of industry profitability. Many institutions predict that the industry will usher in a cyclical inflection point in 2026.
    On the demand side, emerging industries such as new energy, electronic information and high-end equipment have spawned a large demand for high-end chemical materials. The demand for products such as solid-state battery electrolytes, photoresists and high-performance fibers is growing at a high speed, prompting chemical enterprises to shift from "large-scale production of basic chemicals" to "providing cutting-edge material solutions", and the value chain continues to climb upwards.
    In the long run, green low-carbon development, bio-manufacturing and digital transformation have become the long-term driving forces of the industry. Meanwhile, overseas resource cooperation and the development of emerging markets help Chinese chemical industry enhance global competitiveness. Driven by multiple synergistic forces, despite the remaining uncertainties in the external environment, the inherent structural optimization, technological upgrading and demand iteration will promote the industry to achieve more resilient high-quality growth in 2026.
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