Pingtouge found that with the collapse of crude oil, the petrochemical industry has also been affected unprecedentedly, and manufacturers have reduced the production load of chemicals to cope with the shrinking production profits brought by the price drop. Because of the chain development mode of petrochemical industry, the price of raw materials fluctuates violently, which will eventually affect the cost change of downstream products of the industrial chain with crude oil as the starting end, thus affecting the change of the end consumer market.
In this paper, pingtouge combed the development status and trend of 10 industrial chains of China's chemical industry, namely, refined oil industry chain, natural gas / light hydrocarbon industry chain, coal chemical industry chain, polyolefin industry chain, organic silicon industry chain, titanium dioxide industry chain, fluorine chemical industry chain, polyurethane industry chain, chlor alkali industry chain and aromatics industry chain, and revealed to you the sharp fluctuation of crude oil The transmission mechanism of chemical industry chain, as well as the medium and long-term development trend of the industry chain, provide insights for mining investment opportunities in the industry chain.
1. Product oil industry chain
The refined oil industry chain refers to the refined oil products produced after the primary and secondary processing of oil, which mainly refers to gasoline, diesel and kerosene. Refined oil products represent the level and current situation of China's refining and processing. The processing proportion of refined oil and chemicals also reflects the depth of chemical processing. In the past, the product oil mainly refers to the "three barrels of oil" represented by Sinopec, PetroChina and CNOOC. They have an absolute market position relying on the raw material advantage, while private refineries rely on the secondary processing products for production because they can't get better quality oil, which also leads to the oil quality of local refineries far lower than that of the main refineries. However, with the state's opening up of raw materials, especially the "two rights", private refineries have obtained more crude oil use quotas, and the quality of raw materials processed by them has also been greatly improved, which has been randomly added to the transformation of capacity expansion and upgrading. As a result, China's refining capacity is close to 900 million tons, resulting in the oversupply of China's refined oil. From the change of the supply side to passively drive the adjustment of refinery strategic thinking, local refineries have launched chemical projects, and large refineries have put into production integrated projects, which brings the transformation tide of refining to chemical industry. According to the investigation of pingtouge, at present, local refineries in China have a very high enthusiasm for the Shangma chemical project. For the future, China's refined oil industry chain will have the following trend changes: first, Shandong local refineries will be greatly integrated in 2025, and the integrated refining industry will gradually exit from the refining industry and turn to the chemical industry. Second, with the production of future integrated projects, China's refined oil supply will become more and more surplus, and the refining industry chain will accelerate the pace of transformation to the chemical industry chain, focusing more on the production and operation of chemicals.
2. Natural gas / light hydrocarbon industry chain
Generally, the gases that can be used to produce downstream chemicals are mainly methane, ethane, propane and other gases with small carbon molecular weight, mainly in the form of natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas condensate, etc., while methane, ethane, propane and other gases are often collectively referred to as light hydrocarbons. The main component of natural gas is methane, which is mainly used as fuel in China. The proportion of natural gas used in chemicals is relatively small. It is mainly used to produce urea, methanol, PVC and other chemicals. Pingtouge found that in recent years, with the large-scale construction of propane dehydrogenation and ethane cracking projects, the import of ethane, propane and other gases from the Middle East, North America and other regions also increased significantly, because of the obvious price advantage of raw materials, it is expected to become one of the important industrial chains in the future. The production of olefins from light hydrocarbon cracking has a great cost advantage, which may impact the product price of petroleum route in the future. Domestic natural gas is mainly used in the field of chemical industry to produce urea, followed by methanol, formaldehyde, acetylene, dichloromethane, carbon tetrachloride, carbon disulfide, nitromethane, hydrocyanic acid and carbon black as well as helium. But in these products, the proportion of natural gas routes is relatively small, and there is no product pricing ability. Moreover, because natural gas and oil have the same energy attribute, the price fluctuation between them is closely related. Therefore, in the production of these chemicals, the natural gas route usually does not have the cost advantage of raw materials. In contrast, the relatively rapid development of light hydrocarbon cracking projects (ethane cracking and propane dehydrogenation) in recent years has a strong cost advantage due to the raw materials ethane and propane, because it is likely to have an impact on the price system of olefin related products in the oil route in the future. Pingtouge believes that the main trend of China's natural gas / light hydrocarbon industrial chain chemical production in the future is: first, the chemical production with light hydrocarbon as raw material has more environmental protection advantages than other chemical production, and with the high pressure of environmental protection, light hydrocarbon will become more important chemical production raw material. The second is that in the future, natural gas will still be the energy consumption for fuel application, while light hydrocarbon represented by propane and ethane will be more specialized chemical production.
3. Coal chemical industry chain
Coal chemical industry can be divided into traditional coal chemical industry and new coal chemical industry. Traditional coal chemical industry mainly refers to the chemical application of coal coking, coal to carbon black, PVC, synthetic ammonia, etc., while new coal chemical industry refers to the utilization of coal to olefin, coal to aromatics, coal to oil, coal to glycol, coal to ethanol, etc. Due to the pollution of traditional coal chemical industry, and after years of development, the industry has been seriously saturated, so the current development of coal chemical industry mainly refers to the new coal chemical industry. For the development of new coal chemical industry, pingtouge believes that there is another important purpose, which is to make up for the defects of China's energy structure, and also based on strategic considerations. From the current main development direction of new coal chemical industry, coal to methanol, coal to olefin, coal to acetic acid, coal to glycol and other products have obvious cost advantages compared with oil routes and natural gas routes. However, coal chemical projects have high requirements for resources, which usually need to be built in areas with rich coal and water resources and convenient external transportation. According to the experience of pingtouge, coal chemical industry has obvious economic advantages when the price of crude oil is above $50 / barrel. In recent years, with the depreciation cost of old coal chemical projects decreasing year by year, and the technology upgrading of new projects is fast, the proportion of fixed assets depreciation in the cost of products has a downward trend, so when the oil price is higher than 45 US dollars / barrel (the current price of raw coal in Shanxi Province is 500 yuan / ton), the coal chemical route has cost advantages. For the future development direction of coal chemical industry, pingtouge believes that there are several directions: first, the investment cost of coal to olefin in China will continue to decline in the future. The investment cost per ton of coal to olefin before was 300 million yuan, and now it has dropped to 200 million yuan, with a significant decline. The second is the technical improvement of coal to olefin, which will become more and more powerful competitors of petrochemical industry.
4. Polyolefin industry chain
Polyolefin is the most common and widely used polymer material. It is the general name of a kind of thermoplastic resin which is obtained by the polymerization or copolymerization of α - olefins such as ethylene, propylene, 1-butene, 1-pentene, 1-hexene, 1-octene, 4-methyl-1-pentene and some cycloolefins. The main raw materials of polyolefin are ethylene and propylene, which come from petrochemical industry, coal chemical industry and light hydrocarbon chemical industry. Other polyolefins are mostly used to produce special high-end polyolefin products. Polyolefin industry chain can be divided into general polyolefin industry chain and modified polyolefin industry chain. The general polyolefin industry chain is a general product with high degree of standardization and low added value. Modified polyolefin is a kind of general polyolefin, which can be more suitable for special application environment after modification. The modified polyolefin has high added value and high production technology threshold, so its production economy is also high. With the future development, pingtouge believes that the polyolefin industry chain has the following development trends: first, there is a trend of upstream and downstream integration in the polyolefin industry chain. Kingfa technology acquired Ningbo Haiyue PDH device and formally involved in the processing and production of the upstream industry chain. By extending from the downstream end to the upstream end, the technology integration trap in the integration of industrial chain is avoided, and the industry can be effectively extended in a short time. The second is the development direction of polyolefin industry chain in the future, and more side modified polyolefin plastics will be produced. At present, the proportion of China's modified polyolefin plastics is only about 22%, which is far lower than that of developed countries in Europe and America. Therefore, the market of China's modified polyolefin is still far away from the international advanced level. Third, with the launch of the integration project, China's ordinary polyolefin products will approach saturation, especially polyethylene and polypropylene. Due to the diversity of propylene sources, Flathead believes that polypropylene will take the lead in reaching saturation, and soon thereafter, polyethylene will also approach saturation.
5. Organosilicon industry chain
Silicone industry chain is to convert silicon from inorganic state in quartz sand to organic state such as adhesive, silicone resin, silicone rubber, silicone oil, silane coupling agent, etc. another part of the industry chain is to obtain high-purity crystalline silicon crystal (polycrystalline silicon and monocrystalline silicon) or quartz crystal (fiber preform). The downstream products of organosilicon industry chain are numerous and widely used, and the market space has maintained rapid growth for a long time. In the past, the research focus of secondary market on organosilicon industry chain was the supply and demand and price trend of DMC (dimethylsiloxane, an important organosilicon monomer). Because silicon metal accounts for a large proportion of the cost of silicone, and the price of silicon metal is closely related to the price of electricity and the price of quartz ore, so silicon metal is usually built in places with abundant power resources. Due to the nature of mineral resources, quartz mining and construction of new projects are under strong control of environmental protection policies. For downstream silicone enterprises, if they master their own quartz mines, they will undoubtedly take the lead in the market competition. In addition to traditional silicone products (such as silicone resin, silicone oil, silane coupling agent), high-purity inorganic silicon products also need attention under the demand of science and technology industry chain. In addition to polycrystalline silicon and monocrystalline silicon (which are important raw materials for photovoltaic and chip industries), trichlorosilane, the by-product of highly purified silicon tetrachloride, can be used to prepare optical fiber preforms (core materials for optical fiber cables, which are important applications in 5g industrial chain), and high-purity electronic grade silicon dichloride and trichlorosilane are also important electronic and electrical (in semiconductor industrial chain For the development trend of organosilicon industry chain, pingtouge has the following views: first, organosilicon is an important production link in China's chemical industry chain. In the future, under the premise of ensuring the basic consumption application, more side-by-side technology consumption applications will be expanded. The second is that with the domestic leading silicone enterprises starting to make efforts to the downstream, relying on the scale advantage in the silicone monomer link, it is expected to make more breakthroughs in the downstream silicone products.
6. Titanium dioxide industry chain
Titanium dioxide is divided into anatase type and rutile type, most of which are used in coating industry. Due to the obvious monopoly pattern of the industrial chain and the obvious integration trend of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the industrial development of titanium dioxide will be accelerated in the next few years. Titanium dioxide is typical