In January 2026, China's adjustment to the lithium battery export tax rebate policy was officially implemented, reducing the rebate rate from 9% to 6%, with the policy mainly covering the period from April to December 2026. Contrary to the market's intuitive perception of an industry negative, this measure is a precisely targeted supply-side reform that will profoundly impact the competitive landscape of the lithium battery industry chain.
    Data shows that currently, exports account for approximately 18%-22% of China's power batteries and energy storage batteries. The annual equivalent price impact of this tax rebate adjustment is only about 2.25%. According to mainstream investment research models, price fluctuations within 3% have limited impact on the demand for industrial products with strong customer stickiness, so it will not significantly change the total shipment volume of lithium batteries.
    The core target of the policy is inefficient supply and potential supply. By canceling implicit universal subsidies, it raises the industry's survival threshold. Consistent with the logic of policies such as steel de-capacity and the PV 531 subsidy withdrawal, this is not triggering an disorderly price war but promoting the "survival of the fittest" in the industry.
    Industry differentiation is already evident: leading enterprises such as CATL can absorb the impact of the tax rebate cut relying on completed capacity construction, optimal cost curves, and strong customer stickiness, while reaping the dividends of increased industry concentration; integrated manufacturers like Ganfeng Lithium, leveraging the cost advantages of the entire industrial chain, are expected to expand counter-cyclically and take over the market share cleared out. However, lithium battery equipment suppliers have become the most negatively affected sector, as the reduction in new production line investments will directly lead the industry to enter a digestion cycle from an expansion cycle.
    Notably, this policy may exacerbate future supply shortages. The supply of lithium and batteries is a slow variable. The policy's crackdown on new entrants and suppression of expansion impulses will result in supply failing to keep pace with sustained demand growth. Historically, industries such as steel and coal experienced sharp price increases after de-capacity.
    In the short term, the policy may exert some pressure on market sentiment, but in the medium and long term, it will promote increased industry concentration, enhance the pricing power of leading enterprises, and raise supply scarcity. This reform is not a headwind for the new energy industry but a key measure to select strong players and optimize the industrial ecology.

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